11 EYLÜL + ANTHRAX MEKTUPLARI-E-mail 'e ne oldu ?

From the earliest moments, the terrorist crisis has underscored just how much interactive technology has changed the way Americans communicate. After the attacks, snail mail volume dropped, cell phone usage jumped and Web traffic on news sites skyrocketed.

"With the economy and the events since Sept. 11, there's never been a worse situation for clients and advertising agencies," says Bob Greenberg, founder, chairman and chief creative officer at interactive agency R/GA in New York. "They need to take costs out of the system and make things more measurable." And, he adds, "If there's another big terrorist event, specifically around bioterrorism, I think we'll see a huge impact on the kinds of things clients are doing."

E-mail marketing offers the clearest example of accelerating trends and subsequent challenges. Before the attacks, e-mail was already poised for enormous growth: Jupiter Media Metrix expects e-mail ad spending to grow from $1 billion this year to $9.4 billion in 2006. Small wonder: E-mail customer retention campaigns yield an average cost-per-conversion of $6.25-a fraction of the cost of similar direct-mail efforts.

"Marketers are feeling a pinch in their budgets and focusing on return on investment. They're spending more money on all types of direct response," including e-mail, says Shar Van Boskirk, analyst at Forrester Research.

Since the anthrax scare started, e-mail has become even more attractive. Although the Direct Marketing Association says 92 percent of its members will continue their mailing operations as usual, many plan to accelerate their e-mail efforts. A DMA survey in late October suggested that some members-those who had seen mail responses drop by 5 to 10 percent-would boost their e-mail spending by up to 10 percent. Meanwhile, new DMA security guidelines recommended that marketers send e-mail in conjunction with mail drops to notify customers that letters and catalogs are coming.

Consequently, some e-mail marketers have seen increased demand for their services. "Since the anthrax scare started, we've seen a 10 to 15 percent increase in calls from direct marketers," says Shawn Gold, president and chief strategic officer at eUniverse, a Los Angeles-based Web site that sends out 750 million e-mail marketing messages a month for advertisers including Sears, Target and Budweiser. E-mail marketing firm Responsys says demand for its appending service, which adds e-mail addresses to existing customer lists, has grown significantly since Sept. 11.

At the same time marketer interest in e-mail is growing, it may become easier to reach consumers online. "Now [marketers] have one more way to attract people to e-mail lists: They can say it's a healthier way to receive things you would normally get via mail," says Forrester's Van Boskirk. And fears about the mail, she adds, "might inspire people who were already using the Internet to use it more." Next year, 9.4 percent of U.S. households will pay bills online, up from less than 4 percent this year, according the Yankee Group. Jupiter Media Metrix predicts that e-commerce will draw some 28 percent more holiday shoppers this year. And R/GA's Greenberg expects the public to turn increasingly to AOL, Yahoo! and MSN for a variety of messaging services, to keep closer track of loved ones.

But as e-mail lists and mailings grow, it will become more and more difficult for marketers to cut through the clutter-especially if direct mailers migrate en masse to e-mail without careful targeting strategies. The average e-mail user already receives about 570 unsolicited messages a year. By 2002, e-mailers will receive 700 apiece, and more than 1,400 each by 2006, according to Jupiter Media Metrix-even though studies suggest spam isn't effective.

"The task of developing compelling e-mail just got harder," says Dave Kleinberg, senior vice president of marketing and services at Digital Impact, an online direct marketing firm in San Mateo, Calif. "You can't just pump up the e-mail volume. You have to create relevant and compelling messages."

Consumers are increasingly quick to reject irrelevant messages: In 2001, e-mail users were roughly half as likely to buy something based on an e-mail ad than they were in 2000, according to a survey by Forrester Research. In 2001, 49 percent of experienced e-mail users said they automatically deleted all e-mail ads, up from 39 percent in 2000.

To overcome e-mail fatigue, the smartest interactive marketers are starting to embrace a customized approach based on customers' past behavior.

Recently, Hewlett-Packard worked with Digital Impact to send weekly e-mail messages to customers based on purchase history. "If you bought a printer six months ago, you might be interested in extending the warranty. But if you bought network equipment, you're probably a more sophisticated user and you'd get a more sophisticated message," Kleinberg says.

That kind of predictive modeling poses huge database challenges that can't be addressed overnight. "We're starting to see the cutting edge right now, but it'll take 18 months to really get going," Kleinberg. In the meantime, marketers will vie for customer attention with flashier e-mails. This year, 28 percent of e-mail marketing messages will use HTML or rich media, growing to 35 percent next year and 62 percent in 2006, according to Jupiter Media Metrix.

E-mail isn't the only interactive option for direct response. Wireless advertising over Web-enabled cell phones and PDAs is also drawing advertiser interest.

"The anthrax scare and concerns about mail might accelerate the trends [toward wireless marketing]," says Lauren Bigelow, vice president of marketing at wireless network SkyGo. "We've noticed an increase in inquiries from direct marketers."

While wireless ads are still in the earliest stages, those marketers with the budgets to experiment will find a growing array of interactive advertising features available. Recently, wireless advertisers have started using coupons, interactive games and "save the date" ads. For its most recent Music Video Awards show, MTV ran an ad on SkyGo that allowed users to click and enter the show's date on their electronic calendars. And Universal Pictures promoted the film Spy Game through PDA content enabler AvantGo, using a banner that downloaded an interactive game.

The search for safer, more efficient and more direct advertising vehicles also dovetails with trends toward more broadband Web content and richer interactive offerings. "Rich media used in banners and other ads allow you to drill down, go to a FAQ, find system requirements. Those kinds of things will make online advertising more like direct marketing," says Jim Nail, senior analyst at Forrester Research.

As interactive media continue to evolve, the biggest challenge for smart marketers might not be which media to use, but how to use them all at once. "Ultimately, the goal is a customer-managed relationship, where you can design an experience your consumer can manage on the Web or through e-mail or AvantGo ," says R/GA's Greenberg. But with an uncertain economy, most marketers can ill afford ambitious integrated campaigns. With that in mind, Greenberg says, "Design the overall integrated approach, but only implement a small piece. If that measures out to expectations, start adding to it."

Christine Larson is a freelance writer living in Sacramento, Calif. She frequently writes about technology for IQ.

--- Christine Larson is a freelance writer living in Sacramento, Calif.